تعداد نشریات | 31 |
تعداد شمارهها | 741 |
تعداد مقالات | 7,010 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 10,027,296 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 6,756,043 |
استراتژی دفاعی و امنیتی کیشیدا در برابر شکاف ژئوپلیتیکی چین وتایوان (2024-2021) | ||
سیاست جهانی | ||
مقاله 7، دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 47، خرداد 1403، صفحه 143-167 اصل مقاله (904.07 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/wp.2024.25372.3244 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمد کرمپوری* 1؛ مسعود موسوی شفایی2 | ||
1دانشجوی دکترای علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. ایران | ||
2دانشیا ر روابط بین الملل، گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی. دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
تحت تاثیر پویاییها و تحولات اساسی در ژئوپلیتیک شرق آسیا به همراه ظهور تهدیدات امنیتی نوین به خصوص شکاف ژئوپلیتیکی چین و تایوان، ژاپن را وادار به تجدیدنظر در راهبرد دفاعی و امنیتی خودکرده است و بر اساس آن ژاپن ابهام استراتژیک خود را در مورد تایوان تغییر داده است و تایوان به اولویت استراتژیک کلان تبدیل میشود. در این شکاف ژئوپلیتیکی، چین به عنوان بزرگترین چالش استراتژیک در صورت تصرف تایوان موجب تغییر وضع موجود امنیتی و موازنه منطقهای به ضرر ژاپن میشود. بنابراین سوال مهم این است واکنش ژاپن به افزایش اهمیت دفاعی_امنیتی تایوان چگونه قابل تبیین است؟ بنابر فرضیه ژاپن در چارچوب اسناد دفاعی_امنیتی کیشیدا، با سرمایهگذاری کلان در امور دفاعی، موازنه فعال را در برابر چین اتخاذ میکند که شامل تحکیم اتحاد ژاپن و آمریکا، ایجاد موازنه قدرت منطقهای و بازدارندگی است. نتایج پژوهش نیز نشان میدهد کیشیدا برای جلوگیری از حمله چین به تایوان با اتخاذ استراتژی تعادل و مهار در چارچوب معماری جدید دفاعی ژاپن، عمق بازدارندگی چنددامنهای را به تنگه تایوان گسترش داده است و با دیپلماسی دفاعی واقعگرایانه، افزون بر افزایش مشارکت ژاپن در شبکه بازدارندگی یکپارچه آمریکا به منظور مهار چین، یک نظم امنیتی منطقهای و شبکه بازدارندگی جدید یکپارچه مبتنی بر همکاری امنیتی _دفاعی در چارچوب اتحادها و پیمانهای امنیتی با کشورهای همفکر در برابر اقدام نظامی احتمالی چین علیه تایوان ایجاد میکند. ماهیت روش توصیفی_تحلیلی است و از روش تحلیل مهمترین اسناد دفاع ملی، تحلیل کارشناسان مسائل دفاعی شرق آسیا و مراکز مطالعاتی امنیتی استفاده شده است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ژاپن؛ کیشیدا؛ تایوان؛ چین | ||
مراجع | ||
Beckley, M. (2017). The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia. International Security, 42 (2), 78–119. Doi: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00294
Brady, J. (2022). Japan: A Balancing Act on Taiwan and China. With Grounds for Optimism. Teneo. Available: https://www.teneo.com/japan-a-balancing-act-on-taiwan-and-china-with-grounds-for-optimism/
Brummer, M., & and Lindgren, W. (2023). Anarchy Is a Bridge: Russia And China Are Pushing NATO And Japan Together. WAR ON THE ROCKS. Available: https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/anarchy-is-a-bridge-russia-and-china-are-pushing-nato-and-japan-together/
Curtis, L. (2023). Japan’s Role in Advancing a Networked Regional Security Architecture. CSIS. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-role-advancing-networked-regional-security-architecture
Carpenter, T. (2020). Washington’s Three pronged Strategy to Contain China’s Military Power. CATO. Available: https://www.cato.org/commentary/washingtons-three-pronged-strategy-contain-chinas-military-power
Cancian, M., & Eric, H. (2023). The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Congrees.gov. (1979). H.R.2479 - Taiwan Relations Act: 96th Congress (1979-1980). Available: congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479#:~:text=Taiwan%20Relations%20Act%20-%20Declares%20it,other%20people%20of%20the%20Western
Chansoria, M. (2023). The Rise of India-Japan Joint Military Exercises in Asia. JAPAN Forward. Available: japan-forward.com/the-rise-of-india-japan-joint-military-exercises-in-asia/
Corben, T and et.al. (2023). Bolstering the QUAD: the Case for a Collective Approach to Maritime Security. USSC. Available: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ooh1fq7e/production/cfe7c1fea713d0992c375e616a9cfacc9e97909c.pdf/Bolstering-the-Quad-The-case-for-a-collective-approach-to-maritime-security.pdf
Diamond, L., & Ellis, J. (2023). Deterring a Chinese military attack on Taiwan. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Available: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-03/deterring-a-chinese-military-attack-on-taiwan/
DeLisle, J. (2022). U.S.-Japan-Taiwan Dialogue: Deterrence, Defense, and Trilateral Cooperation. Foreign Policy Research Institute. Available: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/u-s-japan-taiwan-dialogue-deterrence-defense-and-trilateral-cooperation/
Free and Open Indo-Pacific. (2021). Japan Ministry of Defense’s Approach. Available: https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_act/exc/india_pacific/indo_pacific_e_2021.pdf
Fitzgerald, J. (2023). Why Japan and South Korea care about Taiwan. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Available from: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-japan-and-south-korea-care-about-taiwan/
Fukuda, M. (2023). Heightened Sense of Crisis: China & Taiwan in Japan’s New National Security Strategy. The Henry L. Stimson Center. Available: https://www.stimson.org/2023/heightened-sense-of-crisis-china-and-taiwan-in-japans-new-national-security-strategy/
Fatton, L. P. (2017). “Japan is back”: Autonomy and balancing amidst an unstable China–U.S.–Japan triangle. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Australia.
Feickert, a. (2023). The Army’s Multi-Domain Task Force. CRS. Available: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11797.pdf
Ghasemi, F. (2016).Complex and Chaotic Systems: Model of Sensitive Dependency, Deterrence and War. World Politics, 5(3), 96-63. [In Persian]
Hua, W.M., & Reinsch, W. A. (2022). Why Taiwan Matters - From an Economic Perspective. CSIS. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-taiwan-matters-economic-perspective
Hughes, C. (2016). Japan’s ‘Resentful Realism’ and Balancing China’s Rise. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 9 (2), 109–150. DOI:10.1093/cjip/pow004
Hughes, C. (2022). Japan as a global Military Power. Cambridge University Press
Hiroaki, S. (2023). Kishida’s Realism Diplomacy: Japan’s Official Development Assistance Strategy. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/kishidas-realism-diplomacy-japans-official-development-assistance-strategy
Kavanagh, J. (2023). Japan’s New Defense Budget Is Still Not Enough. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/08/japan-s-new-defense-budget-is-still-not-enough-pub-88981\
Kuo, Y. (2021). The Taiwan-Japan 2+2 Dialogue and Regional Collective Security. The Prospect Foundation: Prospects & Perspectives, (47).1-6.
Katagiri, N. (2018). Between Structural Realism and Liberalism: Japan’s Threat Perception and Response. International Studies Perspectives, 19, 325–343. DOI:10.1093/isp/eky005
Klingner, B. (2023). Japan’s Enhanced Military Capabilities Will Support U.S. Strategic Interests. The Heritage Foundation, (3772), 1-22.
Liff, A. (2023). Kishida the Accelerator: Japan's Defense Evolution after Abe .the Washington Quarterly, (46)1, 63-83. DOI:10.1080/0163660x.2023.2192138
Liff, A. (2021). Has Japan’s policy toward the Taiwan Strait changed? The Brookings Institution. Available from August 23: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/has-japans-policy-toward-the-taiwan-strait-changed/
Liang, X., & Tian, N. (2023). The proposed hike in Japan’s military expenditure. SIPRI. Available From: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2023/proposed-hike-japans-military-expenditure
Lande, E. (2018). Between Offensive and Defensive Realism: The Japanese Abe Government’s Security Policy toward China. Asian Security, 14(2), 172-192. DOI:10.1080/14799855.2017.1323882
Mearsheimer, J. (2009). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Translation: Gholamali Cheganizadeh.Tehran: Printing and Publishing Center of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. [In Persian]
Ministry of Defense. (2022). Sixth Japan-France Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting (2+2).Available:https://www.mod.go.jp/en/article/2022/01/d8a2428543af216f75657dab41e86a010acb7c2f.html
Montgomery, M. (2023). A C2 Structure for a Strong U.S.-Japan Alliance. CSIS. Available: https://www.csis.org/analysis/c2-structure-strong-us-japan-alliance
Mochizuki, M. (2009). Japan’s shifting strategy toward the rise of China. In Quansheng Zhao., & Guoli Liu (Ed.), Managing the China Challenge Global perspectives (pp. 103-130). Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge
Ministry of Defense (a 2023). Japan-UK Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting 2023: Joint Statement. Available: https://www.mod.go.jp/en/article/2023/11/99c0e1c40e6ed33a56b70bd98bad0d9d208243c7.html
Ministry Defense (b2023). Japan-Germany Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting. Available: https://www.mod.go.jp/en/images/1a69febe690f4101f543436f9f3c7405a0867214.pdf
Mahrough, F., & Karampouri, M. (2023). The evolution of Japan's defense strategy and security policy during Fumio Kishida’s priministership (2021-2023). Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 12(1), 518-588. https://doi.org/10.22067/irlip.2023.80410.1357 [In Persian]
Maizland, L. (2024). Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense. Council on Foreign Relations. Available: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden
National defense strategy (NDS). (2022). Japan Ministry of Defense. Available: https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/strategy/pdf/strategy_en.pdf
National security strategy (NSS). (2022). Japan Ministry of Defense. Available: https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/pdf/security_strategy_en.pdf
Nagashima, J. (2022). Japan Needs an Integrated Deterrence Strategy That Embraces Innovation and Partnership in New Domains. The Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Available: https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/nagashima_10.html
Norton, J. (2021). Japan ‘more than willing’ to help ensure AUKUS success. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Available: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/japan-more-than-willing-to-help-ensure-aukus-success/
ORourke, R. (2024). Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense-Issues for Congress. CRS. Available: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R43838.pdf
Paul, T. (2004). Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance. T. V. Paul. James J. Wirtz., & Michel Fortmann (Edited), BALANCE OF POWER: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century (pp1-25). Stanford University Press.
Panda, J. P. (2023). Taiwan: Tokyo’s New Ally? Institute for Security & Development Policy. Available: https://www.isdp.eu/publication/taiwan-tokyos-new-ally/
Panda, J. (2022). Kishida's New Era Realism in National Security and India Diplomacy. JAPAN Forward. Available: https://japan-forward.com/asias-next-page-kishidas-new-era-realism-in-national-security-and-india-diplomacy/
Raska, M. (2019). Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns. PRISM: THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPERATIONS, 8, (3), 65-81.
Roehrig, T. (2017). Japan, South Korea, and the United States Nuclear Umbrella: Deterrence after the Cold War. New York: Columbia University Press.
Sugio, T. (2022). Japan: Facing the Political Choices in an Era of Great Power Competition: EAST ASIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW.Published by NIDS.
Stokes, J., & et.al (2023). Japan’s Defense Transformation and the U.S.-Japan Alliance. Center for a New American Security. Available: https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/CNAS-Report_Strengthening-the-Shield_091223_final-web.pdf
Smith, S. (2019). JAPAN REARMED: The Politics of Military Power. Harvard University press.
Smith, S. (2022). How Japan Is Doubling Down on Its Military Power. Council on Foreign Relations. Available: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-japan-doubling-down-its-military-power
Sacks, D. (2022). Enhancing U.S.-Japan Coordination for a Taiwan Conflic. Published By Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc.
SIPRI (2024). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023 Available: https://doi.org/10.55163/BQGA2180
Sweijs, T., & Zilincik, S. (2021). The essence of cross-domain deterrence. NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020: Deterrence in the 21st Century, (129-158). Published by T.M.C. ASSER PRESS.
Sheehan, M. (2000). The Balance of Power: History and Theory. London and New York: published by Routledge
Swanström, N., & Heck. L. (2020). Taiwan-Japan (Unofficial) Relations. The Institute for Security and Development Policy. Available: https://isdp.eu/content/uploads/2020/06/Sea-of-Troubles-Taiwan-Japan-IB-03.06.20.pdf
Tatsumi, Y., Kennedy, P., & Nagayoshi, K. (2024). Japan’s Strategic Future and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance. The Henry L. Stimson Center. Available: https://www.stimson.org/2024/japans-strategic-future-and-implications-for-the-us-japan-alliance/
Twomey, C. (2000). Japan, a circumscribed balancer: Building on defensive realism to make predictions about East Asian security, Security Studies, 9(4), 167-205. DOI: 10.1080/09636410008429416
Tokuchi, H. (2023), Japan’s New National Security Strategy: An Awakened Japan and Its Implications for Taiwan, Prospects & Perspectives, (4), 1-5.
Tsetsos, K. (2020). Deterrence in the 21st century. Publisher Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight Bundeswehr University Munich, (16), 1-6.
Wirth, C. (2023). Solidifying sovereign power in liquid space: The making and breaking of ‘island chains’ and ‘walls’ at sea. Political Geography, 103(2). DOI:10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.102889
Waltz, K. (2010). Theory of International Politics. Waveland Press.
Wilkins, T. (2022). What Japan’s security strategy means for Australia. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Available: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/what-japans-security-strategy-means-for-australia/
Yuan, J. (2023). Japan’s new military policies: Origins and implications. SIPRI. Available: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2023/japans-new-military-policies-origins-and-implications | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 329 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 102 |