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Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Coherent Systems via the $\alpha$-Pessimistic Method | ||
| Computational Sciences and Engineering | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 25 مرداد 1404 | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/cse.2025.31257.1114 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Reza Zarei* 1؛ Mahnaz Mirzayi2؛ Gholamhossein Yari3 | ||
| 1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Statistics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics, Iran University Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In real-world reliability analysis, the underlying data and prior knowledge are often imprecise, posing significant challenges to classical probabilistic models. This study presents a novel fuzzy Bayesian approach for analyzing the reliability of coherent systems under imprecise prior information, where system lifetimes follow a Pascal distribution. We construct uncertain Bayes estimators using both squared error and precautionary loss functions by modelling the system reliability as a fuzzy random variable with a prior fuzzy distribution. A key innovation of the proposed approach is the application of the α-pessimistic method, which allows for the estimation process to be carried out without relying on complex non-linear programming, a common limitation in existing literature. Instead, this technique simplifies the computational procedure while enhancing interpretability and analytical tractability. The framework is applied to coherent systems, including parallel, series, and k-out-of-m structures, using Mellin transform techniques to derive the estimators. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Fuzzy Bayesian Estimation؛ System Reliability؛ $\alpha$-Pessimistic Technique؛ Imprecise Prior Information؛ Coherent Systems | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 4 |
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