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تبیین الگوی نظری تحقق شهر هوشمند در افق 1415 در چارچوب آیندهنگاری راهبردی با استفاده از FCM و Mental Modeler | ||
دانش شهرسازی | ||
دوره 8، شماره 2، تیر 1403، صفحه 37-57 اصل مقاله (1.23 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/upk.2024.25967.1901 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
پویا نخجیرکان* 1؛ متین عاشوری چهارده2؛ سامان ابی زاده3 | ||
1دکتری آینده پژوهی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی قزوین (ره). | ||
2کارشناسی ارشد شهرسازی، پردیس هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران | ||
3استادیار، گروه هنر و معماری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
بیان مسئله: عدم قطعیتها، بحرانهای طبیعی و انسانی، ظهور فناوریها، رشد جمعیت و گسترش شهرنشینی با فشارهای اکولوژیکی، اجتماعی و زیرساختی، همگی موید این مطلب هستند که چارچوبهای سنتی مدیریت شهری به عنوان یک راهکار برونرفت از این چالشهای روزافزون دیگر به تنهایی نمیتوانند راهگشا باشند و برای توسعه پایدار شهری در افق آینده لازم است تا از چارچوبهای نوینی همچون آیندهنگاری شهرهای هوشمند استفاده نموده و برنامهریزیهای شهری را با رویکردهای سناریوپردازانه مبتنی بر آیندهنگاری ترکیب نمود (Zali et al, 2016). به کمک سناریوپردازی میتوان آیندههای بدیل پیشروی شهرهای هوشمند را ترسیم نمود و به فهم برنامهریزان و سیاستپردازان شهری جهتدهی نمود. با توجه به اینکه یکی از ضعفهای بالقوه سناریوپردازی این است که به تنهایی نمیتواند فهم جامعی در خصوص نتایج حاصل از وقوع هریک از سناریوها ارائه دهد لذا لازم به نظر میرسد تا از ابزارهای تکمیلی جهت آیندهنگاری راهبردی شهرهای هوشمند بهره برد. هدف: هدف این پژوهش، تبیین الگوی نظری تحقق شهر هوشمند در افق 1415 در چارچوب آیندهنگاری راهبردی با استفاده از ابزارهای مکمل جهت پوشش دهی به ضعفهای روش سناریونگاری است تا خط فکری جامعی در سیاستپردازان و مدیران شهری ایجاد نماید و موانع مدیریت و پیشرانهای کلیدی موثر بر این فرایند را برای اذهان برنامهریزان شهری در افق 1415 مطابق با اسناد بالادستی فراهم آورد. روش: برای تحقق این منظور، ابتدا مهمترین پیشرانها و موانع تحقق شهر هوشمند در قالب سناریوهای مختلف شناسایی شده و سپس در قالب Mental Modeler و به کمک مدل FCM دستهبندی شدهاند. نتایج بدست آمده از خبرگان پژوهش با استفاده تکمیل ماتریس اثرات عناصر بر همدیگر منجر به تدوین نقشه شناختی فازی تحقق شهر هوشمند شدهاست که برای کمک به درک و فهم بهتر به صورت گرافیکی نیز ارائه شده و مرکزیت و تأثیرگذاری عوامل تصویر گردید. یافتهها: خروجیها نشان میدهد که در دسته عناصر از نوع موانع تحقق شهر هوشمند عناصر «عدم رعایت اصل عدالت، توازن و تعادل در ابعاد اکولوژیکی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی (فقدان مدیریت بهینه منابع شهری)»، «کالایی شدن زمین» و «عدم توسعه متوازن و رشد لجام گسیخته شهری و ظهور بافتهای مسئلهدار» به ترتیب با شدت 58/8، 92/7 و 65/7 بیشترین تأثیرات را از سایر عناصر مدل پذیرفتهاند. از حیث اثرگذاری بر مبنای نتایج حاصله، دو عدم قطعیت «افزایش روند مهاجرپذیری شهرها» و «تولید و تحویل آنی (اقتصاد آنی اشیا)» بیشتر از همه عناصر اثرگذار بودهاند. نتیجهگیری: در انتها بر اساس نتایج، الگوی نظری تحقق شهرهای هوشمند بر اساس روش ایندهنگارانه ترکیبی ارائه شده است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شهر هوشمند؛ FCM؛ Mental Modeler؛ آیندهنگاری راهبردی | ||
مراجع | ||
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