Estimating the carrying capacity of tourism and the necessity of forest stands management (Case study: Darkeshforest, North Khorasan, Iran)

Carrying capacity

The concept of recreational carrying capacity has been studied since 1930s (Sumner 1936). The concept includes both the subject of academic studies (Wagar 1964) and the basis for management decisions (Haas 2002). In this study, carrying capacity is the maximum number of people who can use a forest park with optimized enjoyment without causing any degradation. The carrying capacity method used here was the approach known as the method of carrying capacity estimation for protected areas. Physical and real carrying capacities were evaluated by using Countess’s methodology (Cifuentes 1992), which was suggested by IUCN (Ceballos-Lascuarin 1996). This method involves physical carrying capacity (the maximum number of visits that can physically fit into a defined site over a particular time) and the real carrying capacity (the maximum permissible number of visits to a site, once the corrective factor derived from the particular characteristics of the site have been applied to the PCC) (Cifuentes 1992; Ceballos-lascurain, 1996; Cifuentes et al. 1999). In this method, tourist flows, size of the area, optimum space available for each tourist, and visiting time were the main parameters (Cifuentes 1992). In this study, physical and

real carrying capacities were considered to estimate the tourism carrying capacity.

The required data was collected using questionnaire, while weather data was collected from Darkash meteorological station.

Given that the population of the study is 1200 people and according to Morgan Table, 278 would be an appropriate sample size, which was considered to collect information. In order to assess the tourism demand and collecting the needed information to estimate the carrying capacity, the questionnaire was distributed randomly among visitors. Physical and real carrying capacity was determined based on equations 1 - 3.

Where PCC is the physical carrying capacity; A is the available area for public use; Au is the area required per user (16.5 m²); and Rf is the number of permissible daily visits to a forest park (dividing the time of place availability by average time of a visit).

The real carrying capacity was determined using equation 2.

Where RCC is the real carrying capacity; PCC is the physical Carrying Capacity; and Cf1…Cfn are the correction factors, which are determined using equation 3.

Where Cfx is the correction factor for variable X; Lmx is the limiting magnitude of variable X; and Tmx is the total magnitude of variable X (Zacarias et al. 2011). Since climate variables affect the tourism, three factors including rainfall, strong winds and frost were used as variables (X) in equation 3.

Based on the average climate of Darkesh weather station in the period 2000-2015, the average number of days with heavy rain was 10 days; the average number of days with strong wind was 27 days, while the average number of frost days was 34 days. 

Due to the fact that the entire year is considered 365 days, limitation factors of heavy rain, strong wind and frost were 97%, 92% and 90%, respectively according to the equations 2 and 3. Therefore, the actual carrying capacity of Darkesh village was 2190 ha and 132 person per day.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Physical carrying capacity is important because of the increasing recreational use of forest stands, which has to be maintained. Over 20 species have been identified in Darkesh forest including Quercus castanifolia, Juniprus polycarpus, Acer ibericum, Acer cappadosicum, Acer velutinum, and Crataegus Crataeg usembigua. A new management system such as carrying capacity assessment is necessary for Darkesh forests due to having medicinal trees, rare birds and etc.

Given that the recreational uses have adverse effects to an area, the number of visits that a forest park can tolerate without negative effects can be determined by the physical carrying capacity. Darkesh forest covers 22,500 ha and receives most of its visitors during summer. The results indicated that the optimum area available per user (Lee et al., 2005: 16.5 m²) and based on the duration of visitors’ stay in Darkesh village through questionnaires, the average length of visit was 12 hours. Finally according to these data, the physical carrying capacity was 2727 ha and 165 visits day^-1, respectively.

In this study to calculate the true carrying capacity, the limitations  affecting the visiting duration,such as  rainfall, strong winds and frost, should be  exclude from the physical carrying capacity which  were 97%, 92% and 90%, according to equations 2 and 3 respectively. So, based on correction factors and by applying equations 2 and 3, the real carrying capacity was 2190 ha, 132 visits day^-1. The average number of visitors of the park in 2015 was 200 people per day exhibiting overpopulation compared to the carrying capacity, while no precaution has been taken to decrease the number of visitors yet. It is possible to develop some allocation systems, which would only allow a certain number of daily visits to a site in order to protect the area from heavy usage (Eker 2008). In practice, the risk of overload carrying capacity mainly happens during the spring and summer.

The physical carrying capacity has been defined and used for forest park management and decreasing the effects of overutilization. The physical carrying capacity estimates the number of permissible visitors in Darkesh forest in one time, which could serve as a significant indicator of the service quality in the area.

This study calculated this capacity based on tourist flows, the size of area, the optimum space available for each tourist and visiting time (based on Cifuentes 1992; Zacarias et al. 2011). Such measurements with the development of the allocation system are capable of maintaining the park from external threats and degradation. Once an allocation system has been defined, care must be taken to assign the number of visitors to the pre-defined areas, which the natural reserves or other important parts of the forest must not be involved. In order to increase  the number of visitors (in the vicinity of the Sari-Mashhad main road), we need developing several recreational activities (such as hiking, cycling, fishing, education) and facilities (like parking lots, restrooms, waste treatment, etc.). In Darkesh forest, old stands of Q. castanifolia, J. polycarpusand and the river running through the forest are the main fascinating aspects of the park for visitors and might be served as tools for educational excursions.

CONCLUSION

Estimating the number of visitors to an area should be accomplished in order to minimize the effects of forest overuse. Preserving the natural properties of a site, securing user's ability to move freely and to fully enjoy the natural environment without degrading it, as well as preventing the overcrowding, are the most necessary items in all environmental management plans. Parks have been always popular and the number of visitors looking for outdoor recreation is increasingly exceeding. These areas receive large number of visitors during the holidays. Thus, carrying capacity as a new management system can be studied to preserve forest stands by decreasing the number of visitors. Among several methods, the carrying capacity assessment is one of the beneficial and practical methods to ensure the conservation of an area. In addition, the balance between preserving natural resources, visitors’ experience and economic stability can be established using the carrying capacity concept. This study has presented how this method is applied to parks and protected areas, with a special attention to Darkesh forest park. For Darkesh forest, the physical carrying capacity was 2727 ha or 165 visits day^-1. Higher visits flow was observed during summer with a distance of 16.5 m² between each group. This study was the first to apply the concept of carrying capacity for forest parks in Iran, and hence further studies is highly recommended. In addition to the physical carrying capacity, other applicable techniques and factors such as socio-economic factors should be studied in the modeling. More researches are required to investigate the effects of overuse on soil properties, like bulk density. The present study showed that the current management plan for Darkesh forest is poorly planned and needs to be improved and adjusted with the park capacity before arising major problems. The main theoretical aspect of this study was an attempt to develop a tool for forest management which provides the capability of accessing forest resources for recreational purposes while preserving its properties. This new tool is an example of how theoretical concept and ideas can be expanded and how a study can benefit from managing outdoor recreational resources. We believe that this method can serve as a reference for further management plans in Darkesh forest and other similar outdoor recreational areas.