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Fractional-order coupled dynamics of multi-region epidemics with reinfection and optimal control | ||
| Journal of Mathematical Modeling | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، اصلاح شده برای چاپ، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 09 شهریور 1405 اصل مقاله (1.96 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/jmm.2026.33451.3061 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mehrab Sedighpour؛ Mozhgan Akbari* | ||
| Department of Pure Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This paper proposes a coupled fractional-order SEIR model that incorporates interregional mobility and accounts for reinfection. By employing Caputo fractional derivatives, the framework captures non-Markovian memory effects inherent in disease transmission and progression. Analytical results establish the existence of both disease-free and endemic equilibria, with the basic reproduction number (R0) serving as a sharp threshold: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, whereas a unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 >1 under a specific proportionality assumption on mobility rates (see Section 5 for details), which may not hold for general empirical data. To demonstrate the model’s utility in public health planning, we formulate an optimal control problem and present numerical simulations—illustrated with a representative multi-region outbreak scenario—that validate the theoretical findings and assess the impact of coordinated interventions. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Fractional-coupled dynamical system؛ Caputo fractional derivatives؛ epidemic modeling؛ optimal control؛ stability analysis | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 3 |
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