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ارزیابی پیشرانهای مؤثر بر تحقق مسکن پایدار در بستر اقتصاد چرخشی تحت شرایط عدمقطعیت: مطالعهای آیندهپژوهانه در شهر یزد | ||
| دانش شهرسازی | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 10، شماره 2، تیر 1405، صفحه 1-22 اصل مقاله (1.55 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/upk.2026.30525.2026 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی نادری1؛ مهسا زرندی1؛ محسن رفیعیان* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناس ارشد، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بیان مسئله: شهر یزد با رشد سریع جمعیت و محدودیت شدید منابع طبیعی، با چالش جدی تأمین مسکن پایدار مواجه است. برنامهریزی کنونی مسکن عمدتاً بر الگوی خطی استوار است و پیوند مؤثری با اصول اقتصاد چرخشی (بازچرخانی مصالح، انرژی تجدیدپذیر و کاهش ضایعات) برقرار نکرده است. این شکاف موجب افزایش هزینههای زیستمحیطی، هدررفت منابع و نابرابری دسترسی به مسکن گردیده است. هدف: هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی پیشرانهای کلیدی مؤثر بر تحقق مسکن پایدار با رویکرد اقتصاد چرخشی است تا مبنایی برای بازطراحی سیاستهای شهری در یزد فراهم کند و الگویی مقیاسپذیر برای سایر شهرهای کویری ارائه دهد. روش: روش پژوهش مبتنی بر آیندهپژوهی ساختاری، تکنیک دلفی، تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل با نرم افزار میکمک و تحلیل حساسیت با نرم افزار متلب است. یافتهها: تحلیل ساختاری میکمک و تحلیل حساسیت محلی نشان داد که پیشرانهای پایدار و محرک اصلی نظام مسکن پایدار یزد عبارتند از: نرخ بازیافت مصالح ساختمانی (C02)، کارایی مدیریت پسماند ساختمانی (C04) و ارتباط مسکن با احساس امنیت و شادی (C08) که در همه سطوح مستقیم، غیرمستقیم و بالقوه دارای بالاترین تأثیرگذاری و پایداری رتبهای بودند. در مقابل، پیشرانهای پذیرش فناوریهای سبز در ساختوساز (C01)، بهرهبرداری از منابع محلی (C18)، ظرفیت تولید انرژی خورشیدی (C20) و هماهنگی بین نهادهای شهری (C16) با وجود اثرپذیری بالا، حساسیت بسیار زیاد از خود نشان دادند و بهعنوان پیشرانهای شکننده و بحرانی سیستم شناسایی شدند. نتیجه گیری: موفقیت این گذار وابسته به تقویت همزمان سه اهرم پایدار (بازچرخانی مصالح، مدیریت چرخشی پسماند و ارتقای کیفیت زندگی اجتماعی) و پایدارسازی سریع پیشرانهای شکننده (پذیرش فناوری سبز، انرژی خورشیدی و هماهنگی نهادی) است. ماتریس سناریوهای ۲×۲ نشان میدهد تنها ترکیب «هماهنگی نهادی بالا + پذیرش فناوری سبز بالا» به «جهش سبز یزد» منجر میشود؛ در غیر این صورت، شهر با پیشرفت کند، نوآوریهای پراکنده یا رکود چرخشی مواجه خواهد شد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| مسکن پایدار؛ اقتصاد چرخشی؛ آیندهپژوهی؛ برنامهریزی شهری؛ عدم قطعیت | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 82 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 61 |
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