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Sustainable resources management from a water-food-energy nexus perspective: A system dynamics approach | ||
| Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، اصلاح شده برای چاپ، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 10 مهر 1404 | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22124/cjes.2025.9107 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mohsen Alizadeh؛ Seyed Nematollah Moosavi* ؛ Abbas Aminifard* | ||
| Department of Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Nowadays, the security of water, food, and energy is among the most discussed world challenges. So that ensuring the supply of food, water, and energy in the long term and achieving sustainable development is the topic discussed by policymakers worldwide. Effective policymaking to achieve food, water, and energy security requires systemic thinking. So, this study is an attempt to develop a System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the management policies of the water-food-energy system (WFE) for sustainable development in the Duroudzan basin, Fars province, Iran. SD is a method to study and manage complex systems with feedback and understand the behavior of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect overall system behavior. The results showed that the demand for water, food, and energy is increasing due to the increase in population. Due to the demand growth for water, the withdrawal of water resources will eventually. The findings indicated that the water security index is continuously decreasing, and the WFE system will become more vulnerable in the future. Under business-as-usual conditions (Baseline), the average food security and sustainability index were 51.04 and 120.62, respectively, indicating that the food supply at the basin is likely to be sustainable. However, this index has experienced a downward trend during the period from 2022 to 2040. This means reducing the system's ability to meet the increasing demand in the future. Through the use of multi-objective programming to modify cultivation patterns and improve irrigation efficiency, management scenarios have demonstrated a positive impact on the sustainability of the WFE nexus system. Additionally, the implementation of policy scenarios under varying climate conditions and population growth has the potential to significantly increase the water security index from 1.72 to 6.48. Although the optimal cultivation pattern results in a reduction of the cultivated area, the sustainability index is expected to improve by 89%. Nevertheless, the food security index is lower compared to the baseline. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| WFE nexus؛ System Dynamics؛ Multi-objective programming؛ Policy analysis؛ Food Security | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 35 |
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