شناسایی و تحلیل آینده پژوهانه پیامدهای آبشاری زلزله احتمالی در تهران (معرفی زنجیره‌های متقاطع، مخرب و پیچیده)

Afzali, R. (2021). Political-Social Crises of Earthquakes in Iran. University of Tehran Press.[In Persian]

Alimohammadi, H., Bakhshi, A., & Yekrangnia, M. (2024). Seismic risk assessment of Tehran masonry school buildings and prioritizing them for seismic retrofitting using reliability methods. Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06666-2

Antonioni, G., SpadoniI, G., & Cozzani, V. (2007). A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 147(1–2), 48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2006.12.043

Amin Nayeri, B., Zali, N., & Motavaf, S. H. (2019). Identification of regional development drivers by scenario Planning. International Journal of Urban Management and Energy Sustainability, 1(2), 67-80.

Aven, T. (2015). Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 134, 83–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.004

Barquet, K., Englund, M., Inga, K., André, K., & Segnestam, L. (2024). Conceptualising multiple hazards and cascading effects on critical infrastructures. Disasters, 48(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12591

Carpenter, S. R., Bennett, E. M., & Peterson, G. D. (2006). Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview. Ecology and Society, 11(1). http://www.jstor.org/stable/26267787

Del Gaudio, C., Ricci, P., Verderame, G. M., & Manfredi, G. (2016). Observed and predicted earthquake damage scenarios: the case study of Pettino (L’Aquila) after the 6th April 2009 event. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 14(10), 2643–2678. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9919-2

Firuzi, E., Ansari, A., Amini Hosseini, K., & Rashidabadi, M. (2019). Probabilistic earthquake loss model for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran to quantify annualized earthquake loss. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 17(5), 2383–2406. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-019-00561-z

Ghafari Nasab, Esfandiar, & Iman, Mohammad Taqi. (2013). Philosophical foundations of complex systems theory. Methodology of Social Sciences and Humanities, 19(76), 41-59. [In Persian]

Gill, J. C., & Malamud, B. D. (2014). Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(4), 680–722. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445

Glade, T., Kappes, M., Frigerio, S., & Malet, J. (2012). MULTI-HAZARD EXPOSURE ANALYSES WITH MULTIRISK-A PLATFORM FOR USER-FRIENDLY ANALYSES. www.interpraevent.at

Glenn, J. C. (2009). The futures wheel. Futures Research Methodology—Version, 3, 19.

Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures research methodology: version 3.0. Millennium Project Washington, DC.

Gong, S., Ye, Y., Gao, X., Chen, L., & Wang, T. (2023). Empirical patterns of interdependencies among critical infrastructures in cascading disasters: Evidence from a comprehensive multi-case analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 95, 103862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103862

Hajimirrahimi, S. D., Värnik, R., Eftekhari, E., Petrescu, D. C., Petrescu-Mag, R. M., Pour, M., & Azadi, H. (2024). Towards the institutionalization of ethics: agricultural experts’ knowledge of planning effective management of passive defense in Iran. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04534-4

Hill, E. M., McCaughey, J. W., Switzer, A. D., Lallemant, D., Wang, Y., & Sathiakumar, S. (2024). Human amplification of secondary earthquake hazards through environmental modifications. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5(6), 463–476. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00551-z

Hochrainer, S., & Mechler, R. (2011). Natural disaster risk in Asian megacities. Cities, 28(1), 53–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.001

Huang, X., & Wang, N. (2024). Post-disaster restoration planning of interdependent infrastructure Systems: A framework to balance social and economic impacts. Structural Safety, 107, 102408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102408

Jahangiri, K., Eivazi, M.-R., & Sayah Mofazali, A. (2017). The role of Foresight in avoiding systematic failure of natural disaster risk management. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 21, 303–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.008

JICA. (2001). Final Report of the Microzonation Project of Greater Tehran.[In Persian]

Kalantari, M., Firuzi, E., Ahmadipour, M., & Sorooshian, S. (2023). Estimating annualized earthquake loss for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 21(4), 2259–2280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01604-8

Kamranzad, F., Memarian, H., & Zare, M. (2020). Earthquake Risk Assessment for Tehran, Iran. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(7), 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9070430

Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., & Glade, T. (2012). Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: A review. In Natural Hazards (Vol. 64, Issue 2, pp. 1925–1958). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2

Karimi, A., & Tolui far, A. (2024). Improving software quality assurance by using common global standards. Passive Defense. https://pd.ihu.ac.ir/article_209339.html

Kheirizadeh Arouq, M., Esmaeilpour, M., & Sarvar, H. (2020). Vulnerability assessment of cities to earthquake based on the catastrophe theory: a case study of Tabriz city, Iran. Environmental Earth Sciences, 79(14), 354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09103-2

Kirsch, M. T. D., Leidman, M. E., Weiss, D. W., & Doocy, P. S. (2012). The impact of the earthquake and humanitarian assistance on household economies and livelihoods of earthquake-affected populations in Haiti. American Journal of Disaster Medicine, 7(2), 85–94. https://doi.org/10.5055/ajdm.2012.0084

Kumasaki, M., King, M., Arai, M., & Yang, L. (2016). Anatomy of cascading natural disasters in Japan: main modes and linkages. Natural Hazards, 80(3), 1425–1441. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2028-8

Kunreuther, H. (1996). Mitigating disaster losses through insurance. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 12(2–3), 171–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00055792

Kuosa, T. (2011). Evolution of futures studies. Futures, 43(3), 327–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.04.001

Luesink, M., Wolbers, J., Duin, M. van, & Kuipers, S. (2024). Scenario planning to enable foresight in crisis management. https://hdl.handle.net/1887/4093097

Marciano, C., Peresan, A., Pirni, A., Pittore, M., Tocchi, G., & Zaccaria, A. M. (2024). A participatory foresight approach in disaster risk management: The multi-risk storylines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 114, 104972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104972

Maskrey, A., Jain, G., & Lavell, A. (2023). The social construction of systemic risk: towards an actionable framework for risk governance. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 32(1), 4–26. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-07-2022-0155

Mavrouli, M., Mavroulis, S., Lekkas, E., & Tsakris, A. (2023). An Emerging Health Crisis in Turkey and Syria after the Earthquake Disaster on 6 February 2023: Risk Factors, Prevention and Management of Infectious Diseases. Healthcare, 11(7), 1022. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare11071022

May, F. (2007). Cascading disaster models in postburn flash flood. The Fire Environment—Innovations, Management, and Policy, 443–464.

Mitra, A., & Shaw, R. (2023). Systemic risk from a disaster management perspective: A review of current research. Environmental Science & Policy, 140, 122–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.022

Mosadeghrad, A. M., Dehnavi, H., & Darrudi, A. (2024). Equity in distribution of hospital beds in Tehran province. Payesh (Health Monitor) Journal, 23(2), 171–184. https://doi.org/10.61186/payesh.23.2.171

Mozaffari, Z., & Ghasemi, M. (2024). Identifying the key drivers of the sustainable development of rural tourism with a foresight approach (Case study: Neyshabur county). Program and Development Research, 5(1), 41-77. doi: 10.22034/pbr.2024.429826.1394 [In Persian]

NGUYEN, J. (2024). Systemic Risk vs. Systematic Risk: What’s the Difference?

Nola, I. A. (2018). Earthquakes and their environmental, medical and public health impacts. Salud Pública de México, 60(Supl.1), 16. https://doi.org/10.21149/9212

Nomura, S., Parsons, A. J. Q., Hirabayashi, M., Kinoshita, R., Liao, Y., & Hodgson, S. (2016). Social determinants of mid- to long-term disaster impacts on health: A systematic review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 16, 53–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.01.013

Paté‐Cornell, E. (2012). On “Black Swans” and “Perfect Storms”: Risk Analysis and Management When Statistics Are Not Enough. Risk Analysis, 32(11), 1823–1833. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01787.x

Paul, S. (2016). The Perception of Risk. In Scientists Making a Difference (pp. 179–182). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316422250.040

Pescaroli, G., & Alexander, D. (2015). A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the “toppling dominos” metaphor. Planet@ Risk, 3(1), 58–67.

Pescaroli, G., & Alexander, D. (2018). Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework. Risk Analysis, 38(11), 2245–2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13128

Phraknoi, N., Sutanto, J., Hu, Y., Goh, Y. S., & Lee, C. E. C. (2023). Older people’s needs in urban disaster response: A systematic literature review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 96, 103809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103809

Polese, M. (2015). Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios. Proceedings of the ISCRAM 2015 Conference, Kristiansand.

Poudel, A., Argyroudis, S., & Pitilakis, K. (2024). Systemic seismic risk assessment of urban healthcare system considering interdependencies to critical infrastructures. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 103, 104304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104304

Pourezzat, A. (2011). Era-based Strategic Management. Imam Sadeq University(AS). Iran. [In Persian]

Schweizer, P.-J., & Renn, O. (2019). Systemische Risiken und Transformationsprozesse auf dem Weg zu einer nachhaltigen Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftsentwicklung. In Nachhaltiges Management (pp. 211–227). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-57693-9_11

Sulfikkar Ahamed, M., Sarmah, T., Dabral, A., Chatterjee, R., & Shaw, R. (2023). Unpacking systemic, cascading, and compound risks: A case based analysis of Asia Pacific. Progress in Disaster Science, 18, 100285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2023.100285

Sun, Z., Tavakoli, S., Khalilpour, K., Voinov, A., & Marshall, J. P. (2024). Barriers to Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading Networks: A Multi-Dimensional PESTLE Analysis. Sustainability, 16(4), 1517. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16041517

Tagliacozzo, S., Guadagno, L., & Ayeb-Karlsson, S. (2022). How do population movements fit within the framework of systemic risk? Progress in Disaster Science, 16, 100256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100256

Tan, X., Zhong, Y., Vivian, A., Geng, Y., Wang, Z., & Zhao, D. (2024). Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 95, 103411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103411

Tanaka, Y. (2012). Disaster Policy and Education Changes over 15 Years in Japan. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 14(3), 245–253. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2012.687623

Terzi, S., Torresan, S., Schneiderbauer, S., Critto, A., Zebisch, M., & Marcomini, A. (2019). Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation. Journal of Environmental Management, 232, 759–771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100

UNISDR. (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030.

USTA, P., & ONAT, Ö. (2023). An Overview of Temporary Housing Management after the Earthquakes in Turkey in terms of Disaster Management. Journal of Turkish Operations Management, 7(1), 1460–1468. https://doi.org/10.56554/jtom.1204406

van ‘t Klooster, S. A., Cramer, T., & van Asselt, M. B. A. (2024). Foresight in action: A longitudinal study based on a 25-year journey in the world of policy-oriented foresight. Futures, 155, 103294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103294

Wang, J., He, Z., & Weng, W. (2020). A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis. Natural Hazards, 104(3), 2003–2026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04259-3

Yaghmaei, N. (2020). Human cost of disasters: An overview of the last 20 years, 2000-2019. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Zali, N., & Zamanipoor, M. (2015). Systematic analysis of strategic variables of regional development in scenario-based planning (Case: Mazandaran Province). Town and Country Planning, 7(1), 1-28.

Zhang, Y., Weng, W. G., & Huang, Z. L. (2018). A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 128, 197–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.001

Zuccaro, G., De Gregorio, D., & Leone, M. F. (2018). Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 199–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.019